DOOM + GLOOM

Most likely you have heard this before now, but there are some out there with their heads in the sand, or they are thinking that it’s not relevant to Greenwich. Think again.

Case Shiller indicates that home prices are now 33% below 2006 peak numbers – compared to 31% during the Great Depression! and there are striking similarities. There was a temporary rebound both then and recently, and then prices fell again by 7%. The peak after the Great Depression was not regained for 17 years. Are we more resilient today?

We have not yet seen the bottom, and there are economists who are predicting further drops this year through 2012. Paul Dales, US senior economist for Capital Economics indicates another 3% this year.



Predicted Drops for 2012

Paul Dales – Capital Economics – 5%

Patrick Newport – IHS Global Insight – 5%


Devi Aurora – senior director S&P financial institutions – 15% (worse case)



And there you have it – want to sell your house? 

Price it right, rent it out, or wait it out – this is going to be a long ride!



Devi Aurora – Senior Director S&P financial institutions ratings division – worse case 15%

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